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Average First Visit to Conversion Metric for a DTC Site
First, I’m super happy that I’m not the only one who has been looking for this metric.
I have been looking for a published report that shows the average first visit to conversion rate metric for a DTC site for at least the last five years. I have run hundreds of Google searches. What information I have found has been completely irrelevant. The most common report talks about the average conversion rate for DTC sites, which, as you know, isn’t what we’re looking for.
The bad news is that there is no report that has looked at a broad range of DTC websites and calculated the average first visit to conversion rate metric for those sites.
The good news is that over the last 15 years, I have studied Google Analytics data of over 400 different DTC sites. Businesses with a huge range of business models, meaning we’d expect them to have a wide range of visits to purchase. Surprisingly, the number across all those sites is tightly coupled at a narrow band—
90% of all purchases happen within a 24-hour window of the user first landing on the website.
When I first saw this for a client, I was convinced it was an anomaly, so I started looking at data for other clients. I would see the same metric over and over, irrespective of the product price. So I assumed that maybe their GA wasn’t configured correctly, but this also stopped making sense when, for the 70th DTC site, I saw the same number: 90% of all purchases happen within a 24-hour window of the user first landing on the website.
One potential explanation is that when the first visit happens on one device and the second happens on another, it could mess up the calculation. I have spoken to a few technical experts, and this is certainly a possibility. If true, it means calculating the first visit to purchase metric isn’t possible. And if we can’t measure it, the safest strategy is to be pessimistic and assume the buying window is short.
Does Average First Visit to Conversion Metric Even Matter?
It matters because it’s the basis on which brands construct their entire marketing strategy. If I knew the person I was trying to convert would take several days and many visits, I would build a multi-visit strategy and rely on things like email marketing to nurture until they are ready to buy. I would also tone down the intensity of my pitch, knowing it could backfire (over-eager sales guy) since this person requires a long time to buy.
But if I knew I only had a short window, I’d be a lot more persuasive, eliminate fluff, and only focus on the few details that truly mattered.
What to Do When Average First Visit to Conversion Window Is Short?
With a very short purchase window, we have two laser focus our sales elements on a few attributes and, over the last 15 years, having run thousands of experiments and tested a whole bunch of selling angles, I’ve discovered 3 vital messaging conversion catalysts.
1: Demonstration of Expertise
If you can convince a prospect that you know 30x more about the problem they are trying to solve, there is an exponentially higher probability of them buying. This is the power of demonstration of expertise.
Go into minute details. Let the reader know about all the hard technical choices you made. Don’t worry about if the shopper understands all you are discussing. I like it when my doctor talks, and I have no clue what she’s saying— it’s nice to know she knows what she’s talking about.
Of course, it isn’t that expertise is being displayed but how it’s being presented that makes the biggest difference.
2: Price Justification
You already know how giving a 20% discount instantly improves sales. But what if we could achieve that same result without sacrificing 20% of our margin? This is what price justification delivers.
With price justification, we are taking the spotlight away from discounts and shining it on value.
Think about it: you’ve spent years developing your product, spoken to thousands of customers, and incorporated their feedback to improve it. You’ve iterated and refined policies to better serve customer needs. For one low price, the shopper gets all of these benefits.
This is clearly a good deal for the buyer. But just like with Demonstration of Expertise, it isn’t the statement but how the price is justified that makes the real impact.
3: Us vs. Them
When the user first lands, they know they have alternatives. The trouble is, as long as they’re focusing on these alternatives, they aren’t giving us their full attention.
The strategy is to let the reader know that, all things considered, our solution is superior. Again, just like with the two points above, it’s not about the statement but *how* it’s stated that makes the revenue difference.
What if I’m Wrong About the First Visit to Conversion 24-Hour Window
Let’s do a thought experiment: Say that the first visit to the conversion number is three weeks. What would we do?
Now assume the first visit to the conversion number is 24 hours. How would you adjust your strategy?
I assume you’d adjust it by focusing on only the most important details and eliminating everything else. How would this approach work for a shopper who needed 3-weeks to buy? And you’ll realize that crafting your pitch for a buyer who will not return forces streamlining, and that makes the pitch good for all types of buyers, even those who need 3 weeks.
A persuasive pitch works just as well for a short buying window as it does for a longer one.
It’s a win-win.
Next Steps
These 3 messaging conversion catalysts (demonstration of expertise, price justification, and us versus them) will achieve 80% of your revenue goals, but if you want to understand how the sausage is made, let me draw your attention to this Nine Truths article (click the image below). In it, we talk about all the decision-making processes online shoppers use before buying.
